Recently, the phased easing of tariff policies between China and the United States has injected a strong impetus into the global container shipping market, driving freight rates to start a new round of upward cycle. Since the Trump administration announced in mid-May a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs on some Chinese export goods, the market has responded promptly, and the "export rush" mode has been fully launched. The Trans-Pacific shipping route has become the core driving force of this round of market conditions.
This round of freight rate increase shows obvious "chain reaction" characteristics. Attracted by the high profits of the Trans-Pacific route, shipping companies quickly reallocated their capacity and diverted some ships to the US route. This structural capacity adjustment has led to temporary capacity shortages on other routes such as Asia-Europe, the Middle East and South America, which in turn has driven up freight rates in a coordinated manner.
Several industry research institutions predict that this round of freight rate hikes will peak around mid-June. Xeneta's analysis indicates that as the concentrated shipping wave subsides, inventory replenishment is completed, and the supply of shipping space gradually recovers, the tight supply and demand situation in the market will be alleviated, and the enthusiasm of shippers to secure shipping space will also cool down accordingly.
However, there are still many uncertainties in the market outlook. As the 90-day tariff exemption period draws to a close, the subsequent direction of the US tariff policy is full of uncertainties. Issues such as whether the "Section 301 investigation" will implement port surcharges have also drawn high attention from the market. Furthermore, the recent weak economic data released by the economies of Europe and the United States have further intensified the downside risks in the market. Once policy expectations weaken, freight rates may face rapid downward pressure.
Overall, the current increase in freight rates in the container shipping market is the result of the combined effect of short-term policy stimulus, concentrated market shipping behavior, and structural capacity adjustment. As the policy effect weakens and the market supply and demand relationship gradually returns to balance, freight rates may return to rationality. For shipping enterprises, shippers and logistics service providers, how to seize the current premium window period and effectively control potential risks at the same time will be the key to dealing with market fluctuations.
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The easing of China-US tariff policies has given a boost to the global container shipping market
